Environmental scientists reported that ice on the Liard River has broken up. Researchers said while levels at the mouth of the Liard River rose 1.3 metres in the last 24 hours, the Hay River remains at record lows for this time of year.
While water levels in major rivers currently remain at historic lows, that could change due to a number of factors including weather and water that is due coming from the south.
The territorial Department of Environment and Climate Change issued their second break-up report for 2026 on Monday.
Ice break-up on Liard River “has advanced significantly”
According to the data collected by scientists with the department, the ice break-up on the Liard River has “advanced significantly” within the territory.
“At Fort Liard, the river ice broke up by the morning of May 2. As of May 4 at 14:00, ice is flowing past the community and shore ice is along the banks.”
Scientists said that according to local reports, both the Liard and Petitot Rivers are flowing well at Fort Liard. They said previous “localized jamming” reported near the Muskeg River confluence on May 2 cleared.
They said available data suggests that the Liard River broke between Nahanni Butte and Fort Simpson on May 3, with localized jamming mixing within open water sections.
“Break-up progressed downstream, reaching the mouth of the Liard River on the morning of May 4,” said scientists.
They added that rubble ice is moving into the mouth of the Liard River into intact Mackenzie River ice.
“Water levels on the Liard River at the mouth rose gradually over the weekend and have risen 1.3 m in the past 24 hrs.”
Researchers said the water level remains “within the average range” for this time of year.
The added that the water level has remained relatively stable since Saturday.
The scientists noted that spring temperatures were below average in the Liard River Basin during March and warmed to average conditions during April.
“During the week of April 26-May 3, the basin warmed rapidly relative to historical conditions, particularly in the southeast of the basin near Fort Nelson, B.C.”
The researchers predicted that the rapid rate of warming is anticipated to slow but temperatures are forecasted to remain above average this week.
Water levels “gradually” rising on Hay River
Data suggests a similar trend in Hay River, where warmer temperatures are forecasted to continue.
“Temperatures are forecasted to remain near or slightly above average over the coming week with no significant precipitation events affecting water levels,” said the authors of the report.
“Water levels are rising gradually on the Hay River at the border, but remain well below average for this time of year. Levels on the Hay River near the Town of Hay River are at a record low for this time of year,” said GNWT researchers.
According to the data collected over the last few months, spring temperatures were “cooler than average” before warming to “slightly above average” conditions beginning last week.
While break up has been delayed in in Hay River, due to colder than average temperatures this season, that has begun to change.
“Above-average temperatures have been experienced over these regions since late April.
Temperatures are expected to remain near or slightly above average this week with no significant precipitation.”
They reported that in the Hay River, ice is primarily melting in place and remains intact but weakening north of the border.
Data was collected over the last few days up to 2 p.m. Monday and released by the GNWT at about 5 p.m.
Scientists reported that river ice along the mainstem of the Hay River north of the border remained intact but was weakening.
“The ice front is still south of border,” said the authors of the report.
The researchers said levels remain at record lows near the town of Hay River, with the spring rise taking place 12 days later than last year.
Researchers advised to head to the town of Hay River’s website for the most up-to-date information.
On the Mackenzie River, ice remains intact downstream of Fort Simpson and upstream at Strong Point, and is degrading thermally.
Mackenzie river remains “well below historical averages”
Scientists said while water levels on the Mackenzie River are rising gradually under the ice, data showed levels generally remain “well below historical averages.”
“Great Slave Lake levels have remained relatively stable, rising only ~1 cm in the last three days.”
At Fort Providence, data showed the water level rose 10 cm over the last three days, to what is considered an “average” level for this time of year.
Water levels could change quickly
While water levels in major rivers currently remain at historic lows, that could change due to a number of factors including weather and water that is due coming from the south.
“It is important to note that much of the water contributing to NWT rivers originates from outside of the NWT, which is why we also rely on information from the Yukon, British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan.”
Scientists noted that the potential and severity of flooding will depend largely on weather over the next weeks and its influence on existing ice conditions, water levels and snowpack amounts.
They said the primary factors influencing water levels in the spring include ice jams, which can cause “out-of-bank” water flows (even amid below normal flows) and rate of melt of ice and snow.
The rate of melt can be gradual or quick. The rate of melt is influenced by weather conditions from temperature to rain on snow or ice events. Rain can cause a more rapid melt.
Additional factors that can come into play include current water levels, the wetness of the ground during autumn and snowpack.
More details of the findings for the Liard River, Hay River and Mackenzie River along with weather data including forecasts are outlined in the report.
On Monday, a message from the territorial government advised those living in the N.W.T. to make an emergency plan, build an emergency kit and follow local government notifications.
