While data collected by the centre for climate change shows that water levels remain low in most rivers and lakes across the territory, scientists predict it will likely change for some major waterways this spring. Looking at snowpack measures, data showed that water levels are forecasted to rise above average across much of the western and southern Mackenzie River Basin.
Scientists reported that Great Bear Lake is at its lowest water level for this time of year and Great Slave Lake’s water levels are lower than last year.
“Great Slave Lake water level is currently well below average and lower than the level observed at this time last year, which was also below average,” said the scientists behind the report.
The data was collected from mid February to March 13. Environment and Climate change scientists compared water level measures recorded across the territory that go back about 100 years.
Data showed that the Slave River and the Liard River were below average for this time of year or below the 75th to 90th percentile.
Water level measures collected from the Hay River showed that the water level was well below average for this time of year, which means below the 90th percentile.
Scientists reported that the Mackenzie River’s water level was recorded at a number of stations along the river and showed levels well below average for this time of year.
Climate change researchers have reported the low water levels are the result of extreme drought conditions going back to the summer of 2022. The conditions have persisted through 2023, 2024 and 2025. Scientists reported that while water levels have shown some recovery, it has mostly been limited to smaller rivers and lakes in the territory.
Some rivers in the territory showed average levels for this time of year including the Peel River.
Scientists said there were some “notable exceptions” to low water levels including the South Nahanni River, which showed levels well above average.
The Coppermine River and smaller rivers in the Great Slave Lake basin showed average levels closer to normal including the Lockhart River and Taltson River. The Hoarfrost River, also among the smaller rivers of the Great Slave Lake basin, showed above average levels.
Scientists said that according to the data collected from mid February to mid March, temperatures were mostly average, but there were some anomalies.
“February temperatures were generally average across the NWT, with below-average temperatures observed in Yellowknife and Norman Wells.”
Researchers said that precipitation during this same period was generally average with some outliers.
“Precipitation was mostly average to above average, with above-average precipitation recorded in Fort Smith, Yellowknife, and Norman Wells.”
Scientists said levels in the spring and summer season on the Slave River, Great Slave Lake and the Mackenzie River are influenced by snowpack volumes and spring rainfall in northern Alta. and B.C.
Looking at snowpack measures, data showed that water levels are forecasted to be above normal in the spring in some waterways.
According to data collected over the last few weeks, the water levels after the snow melt (or the snow water equivalent) are forecasted to be above normal across much of the western and southern Mackenzie River Basin, especially in the headwaters of the Slave, Liard and Hay Rivers in northern Alta. and B.C.
Snow water equivalents are the water amounts that result after snow melts.
Researchers say the SWE measured over the winter can be a strong indication of how much water will go into rivers and lakes once the spring arrives.
The scientists said the SWE values also reflect the density of the snowpack.
Researchers forecasted that temperatures will be cooler than average in April.
“Climate forecasts from ECCC indicate that cooler-than-average conditions willvcontinue through March, particularly in the Dehcho, North Slave, and South Slave regions. Cooler-than-average temperatures are expected to persist into April, before transitioning back to near-normal conditions in May,” said the authors of the report.
Scientists with the centre for climate change in the territory also forecasted above average precipitation in the Dehcho region for April.
The scientist behind the report noted that level sensors can be influenced by ice formations. For that reason, the level readings should be interpreted with “caution.”
